Fresh Thinker

Bangladesh has been victim of devastating flood twice is last two years.
A severe cyclone (Sidr) swept through Bangladesh in November 2007 which
left over 10000 dead and half a billion USD damage. Yet economic data
shows that Bangladesh in on track in its expected growth. That's all
most like a miracle.

Export Promotion Bureau in Bangladesh reported that Bangladesh exports
in March 2008 have increased 21.25 percent from a year earlier to $1.22
billion. In July to March, the first three quarters of the 2007-2008
fiscal year, export earnings grew 12.4 percent to $10.16 billion. Export
volume increased by 13.93 percent. Earnings from knitwear garments in
the nine-month period grew by 17.34 percent to $3.9 billion. Exports of
woven garments increased 7.54 percent to $3.8 billion.

According to the Bangladesh central bank statistics, Bangladesh
expatriates sent home a record remittance i.e. US$6.449 billion in the
first 10 months of this fiscal year. It got a 31.48 per cent growth over
the corresponding period of the last fiscal year. The remittances from
Bangladeshi nationals working abroad were estimated at $800.20 million
in April 2008. In March, the remittance was $808.72 million USD.

At least 295,155 Bangladeshis found jobs in over 100 countries during
the January-April period this year. This is up from 192,725 in the same
period last year, according to the Employment and Training (BMET)
statistics published by Bangladesh Bureau of Manpower.

A recent report indicated that Banks in Bangladesh is allowed to open
small business centers in Bangladesh. It suggested that Bangladeshi
expatriates are now increasingly using banking channels to remit money
as banks have become efficient in delivering such money. Bangladesh
banks recently decide to allow the commercial banks to partner with the
non-governmental organizations (NGO) having branches all over the
country for disbursement of remittances, particularly in the rural
areas.

In another report published in earlier this month, Bangladesh's central
bank said that the economy could grow as much as 6.2 percent in the
current fiscal year, supported by a rebound in agricultural output
following natural disasters and a pick up in exports growth.

In few recent reports on Bangladesh ship-break industries, it has been
emphasized that Bangladesh has emerged as a major ship-breaking
destination in South Asia. An average of 150-200 vessels is being
scrapped in Bangladesh every year according to one report. Bangladesh is
getting a competitive edge over its rival in neighboring countries like
India and Pakistan. Both India and Pakistan generate around 4,000 tonnes
of scrap steel per vessel, while Bangladesh generates 12,000-15,000
tonnes of scrap steel per vessel according to the data provided by the
report. A high official of Ship Recycling Industries Association of
India have confessed that "Indian Ship-breakers are losing business to
Bangladesh" in an interview.

There are some down side as well. Bangladesh has been under serious rice
shortage and price has climb as much as 50% in recent months. Bangladesh
was seriously affected by world wide rice shortage. Being in the list of
top five rice producing countries did not help much. That's because
Bangladesh consumes more rice than it produces since rice is the primary
food here. Bangladesh has to import a large sum of rice each year. Hit
by natural disaster made this worse. Even living in Silicon Valley, I
can feel the heat as my local Costco have run out of rice for weeks.
Other shops have also increase the price and put a limit on how much
each customer can buy. I can imagine the situation in Bangladesh where
35% people live below dollar a day poverty line. Yet the new harvest
season is giving them a hope.

Just yesterday, government of Bangladesh has banned export of rice for
six months except aromatic varieties. Official says that the ban came
after the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) revealed last week that a group
of exporters have cashed in on the government's free rice export policy
by shipping in record amount of the staple this fiscal year.

Bangladesh factory owners and officials have come into rescue by
providing subsidized food to low-paid workers. Workers in Bangladesh
assumed to spend about 70 percent of their income on food. "The
Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association will provide
rice at two-thirds of the market price to a quarter of its 800,000
employees", a local official said to a reporter.

The central bank (Bangladesh Bank) reported that Bangladesh's overall
import grew by 24. 37 percent during the first nine months of the
current fiscal year( July 2007-June 2008) over the same period of the
previous fiscal. "The overall import increased during the period due
mainly to higher import of essential items including food grains,
industrial raw materials and petroleum products to meet the domestic
demand," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank have said to a news
reporter.

Looking over both pros and cons from the reports coming from Bangladesh,
it seems that Bangladesh have been passing difficult times. But at the
same time all economic data pointers are suggesting that the overall
growth is marching forward in full swing. If only its political leaders
now realize the opportunity that lie ahead, and abandon the path of
corruption and instability like strike, Bangladesh should embrace a
promising future. The real question is, will they realize it and come
clean?

[GM Solaiman writes from Silicon Valley, California. He can be reached
at gm.solaiman@gmail.com]